The new book «The Mediated Effect of Sanctions» by Andrey Elinson to explore history of sanctions

Andrey Elinson is a professional political scientist and economist engaged in the study of sanctions in different nations. He analyzes such measures and their impact on international relations. His new book, «The Mediated Effect of Sanctions», simultaneously published in two languages, English and Azerbaijani, will become available on store shelves in May. What is the “usual” set of sanctions? For what purposes are they imposed? When are they effective and when not so much? Are there ideal scenarios for them? How old is this phenomenon?

One of the first and particularly striking examples of sanctions aimed at a specific state was imposed against the African nation of Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) in the 1960s. The sanctions were motivated by two reasons, the author explains: “Racial segregation was rampant in the country, and there were constant wars with insurgents. As a distinctly racist state, Rhodesia simply denied the indigenous majority population the right to participate in the country’s political life.” As a result, following a UN Security Council resolution, a trade embargo was imposed on Rhodesia, making it impossible for it to exchange goods with any other countries. “However, while efficient on paper, this tool did not work: Rhodesia’s trade with South Africa and Mozambique continued as usual. The first step was a flop, but that was only just the beginning,” writes Andrey Elinson.

A similar situation occurred in the late 1970s in South Africa, where the apartheid regime flourished, causing a huge social division in the country, which, along with the ever-growing military force, was fraught with potential wars against neighboring countries. The solution was to introduce a complete ban on the supply of any weapons to that country. But this measure turned out not to be very effective. What did have an impact was the ban on the import of raw materials from South Africa and the restriction of financial transactions with other countries, banks, and companies within the continent. As a result, South Africa lost more than a billion dollars. The sanctions were lifted after the abolition of the apartheid and the change of power, when Nelson Mandela became president.

“In short, it all began in Africa. But later, the sanctions policy affected other parts of the world as well, and never without reason. The third country on the list was Iraq. It was subjected to a total ban on oil imports, which had a very tangible effect on the oil-producing state and its authorities, who had just unleashed a war with Kuwait: a fivefold drop in GDP over two years,” writes Andrey Elinson. To conclude this historical overview, the country that has been under the embargo the longest is, of course, Cuba. “The reason was the nationalization of the property of American companies and citizens, a step deemed absolutely unacceptable on the Castro regime’s part,” the political scientist points out. “In fact, after that, the island was closed off from the world for 50 years, and its resulting losses because amounted to more than a trillion dollars.”

Later, sanctions as a geopolitical tool were used against a number of different states: Myanmar (formerly Burma), Yugoslavia, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela. And each time the reasons were clearly evident: installing a military dictatorship, testing nuclear weapons, invading other countries, committing multiple human rights violations… In short, actions that represented a factual and practical global threat.

Modern history clearly shows that sanctions are effective in most cases, as they bring an end to the conflict that caused their imposition, says Andrey Elinson. And here, it is necessary to note the most important feature of sanctions. They help resolve military conflicts not through even more military action, but with a tool that is purely economic and much more effective: to date, there has not been a single example of a state against that remained prosperous after being subjected to international sanctions.

What can we conclude from this? Andrey Elinson believes that, firstly, sanctions pressure never arises out of the blue and restrictive measures, up to a complete economic blockade, are introduced for a number of standard reasons. Secondly, the author states that targeted sanctions against specific leaders of this or that country do not make much sense, but the use of economic leverage is a fool-proof measure. “And this applies even to those countries that adamantly refuse to play by the rules of the civilized world: from an economic point of view, North Korea would probably feel much better if its foreign policy were not so aggressive.”

“However, it should be noted that the same methods work differently in different cases, not always achieving their goals,” the author continues. “This is true mainly of those countries whose leadership, contrary to all logic, is ready to withdraw completely from the global community, becoming a rogue state.” Which, according to Andrey Elinson, is not even 100% possible, regardless of circumstances. “In the modern world, no country can exist separately from any and all nations, because the first and main law of the economy lies in its globality.”

Thus, as an element of geopolitical relations, the science of sanctions, although “relatively old,” is still taking form, proving to be successful time after time. Against this background, Andrey Elinson’s new work, with its many historical examples and versatile analysis of the topic at hand, seems particularly relevant and definitely worthy of attention.

Andrey Elinson is an expert in war and economic sanctions from Azerbaijan. He earned his PhD in economics from Georgetown University and is a research assistant at the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, specializing in the economic impact of war sanctions. Andrey has published various papers on the topic and is highly respected in his field. He is a proponent of diplomacy, negotiation, and international cooperation to resolve conflicts and avoid the need for sanctions or military action. Andrey is also a vocal advocate for human rights and social justice.