Could Deeside turn blue? Predictions and early poll point to shock Tory win

Labour’s hold on the Alyn and Deeside parliamentary seat looks set to come to a sensational end if the first Welsh Political Barometer poll published since Theresa May called the snap general election is to be taken seriously.

The YouGov poll for ITV/Cardiff University conducted between Wednesday and Friday last week asked people in Wales how they would vote in a general election, it shows the Conservatives with a 10 point lead over Labour.

[miptheme_quote author=”Professor Roger Scully – Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre.” style=”text-center”]Something extraordinary could be about to happen. Wales is on the brink of an electoral earthquake[/miptheme_quote]

Labour MP Mark Tami enjoyed a 3343 majority in his 2015 General Election victory, Conservatives would need a 4.05% swing to wrestle the seat from Labour.

During the run up to the 2015 General Election the Conservative Party inadvertently leaked a list of non-target seats where winning was considered highly unlikely, the list included Alyn and Deeside, the seat is now seen as winnable for the Tories and firmly on their 2017 target list.

1983 Thatcher wins a landslide victory

The closest the Conservatives have come to winning in Alyn and Deeside was 1983 the year of Thatcher’s landslide victory, Labour candidate Barry Jones, now Lord Jones won with a majority of 1368.

Conservatives look set to be the main beneficiary of the UKIP demise in Wales, despite winning a credible 7200 Alyn and Deeside votes in the 2015 General Election, the party has failed to muster a single Flintshire candidate in the forthcoming local elections.

The headline figures from the Welsh Political Barometer says Prof Roger Scully “reflect a direct move by many former UKIP supporters into the Conservative ranks: very nearly two-thirds of all our respondents who voted UKIP in the 2015 general election now say that they intend to support the Tories.”

A two thirds shift from UKIP to Conservative would see around 18,500 Tory votes in Alyn and Deeside a 2000 majority based on 2015 figures.  

Projections from the poll suggest ten seats will be gained by the Conservatives from Labour.

Some caution is needed says Professor Scully “This is only one poll. Moreover, there are more than six weeks of both national and local campaigning to go.

Local campaigners and sitting MPs seeking re-election will be hoping that their hard work will enable them to buck what currently appear to be the national trends.”

“But while showing due caution, we also should not underplay these findings. For once, words like sensational and unprecedented do not seem out of place. Wales has been Labour for longer than any voter taking part in these elections can possibly remember. We could be just over six weeks from that near-century of one-party dominance coming to an abrupt end.”