Posted: Thu 27th Nov 2014

Will it snow at Christmas? here's the latest winter weather forecast (guess)

News and Info from Deeside, Flintshire, North Wales
This article is old - Published: Thursday, Nov 27th, 2014

The latest winter weather forecast published today by Netweather suggests we could be in for a “significant” wintry spell in late December and into January. ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

December they say, is likely to be the most unsettled month with the risk of a “significant wind event” (umm not sure that’s weather related). ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

Most of the UK likely to see a settling snow at some point (wonder if their computer is called Sherlock) with temperatures forecast to be slightly colder than average ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

We should expect the average rainfall but conditions favour it to be wetter further south and drier to the north of the UK. ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

Average Central England Temperature’s (CET) will be: ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

  • December CET forecast: 4-4.5°c.
  • January CET forecast: 3-3.5°c.
  • February CET forecast: 3.5-4.5°c.

Now for some advanced weather stuff: ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

This forecast is based on certain solar, atmospheric and sea state conditions that are in place prior to the start of this winter according to Netweather. they will lead to atmospheric responses that are likely to influence the forthcoming winter pattern ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

  • A mean negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) throughout winter of around -1. (AO description here.)
  • Positive height anomalies to the north leading to significant high latitude blocking.
  • A weakened stratospheric vortex with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) likely around the turn of the year leading to a very disturbed tropospheric polar vortex and negative NAO around this time.
  • A southerly displaced jet stream. 

Right, ok, got all that, but will it snow at Christmas? ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

Netweather say: ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

“A look at the CFS (climate forecast system) chart for Christmas day today, and it’s a colder outcome this time round. The last 7 days have thrown up a handful of these colder scenarios (we’re looking for the blue colours for there to be a risk of snow), so a slight upturn in that trend since the last update.” ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

xcfsxmas3.png.pagespeed.ic.ug8AhsWAmp ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

“Don’t forget though, it is just trends we’re looking for at this range, not specific outcomes – so the chart you see above is just one option out of many that the CFS model suggests is possible right now. From next week, the monthly forecasting models start to come in to range, which takes us another step further along as we hone in on the forecast for the big day.” ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

Got that? no? OK lets ask the little fella below: ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

B3S624bCIAEdTdC ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​

2014-11-25 14_57_34 ‌​‌‌‌​‌‌‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​‍‌​‌‌‌​‌​


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