Senedd election 2026: Identical projection in both Flintshire seats — two Reform, two Plaid, one Labour, one Tory
Reform UK and Plaid Cymru are each projected to win two seats in both of the new Senedd constituencies covering Flintshire, with Welsh Labour and the Welsh Conservatives taking one each, according to the final pre-election MRP poll for ITV Cymru Wales.
The poll was conducted by YouGov in partnership with Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre.
It puts Reform UK on 31% in Fflint Wrecsam and 35% in Clwyd.
Plaid Cymru is on 30% in Fflint Wrecsam and 27% in Clwyd.
The seat projection is identical in both: two each for Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, one each for Welsh Labour and the Welsh Conservatives.
That is a change on the April MRP in the same series, which had projected three Reform UK seats in each constituency, two for Plaid Cymru and one for Labour, with no Conservative seats.
In Clwyd, Reform UK’s vote share is unchanged at 35%, but the projection drops from three seats to two.
That is because the Conservative vote share has risen from 11% to 16%, enough to win the party a seat under the proportional voting system used.
In Fflint Wrecsam, Plaid Cymru is up seven points since the April projection, from 23% to 30%.
Reform UK is down a point, from 32% to 31%.
The Conservatives are up two, from 10% to 12%, taking them from no projected seat to one.
Welsh Labour is projected to take one seat in each constituency, broadly unchanged from the April model.
The new Fflint Wrecsam constituency replaces parts of the existing Alyn and Deeside seat, currently held by Jack Sargeant MS, the Welsh Government Minister for Culture, Skills and Social Partnership. It also covers parts of Wrexham.
The new Clwyd constituency replaces parts of the existing Delyn seat, currently held by Hannah Blythyn MS. It extends west into Denbighshire.
Both Alyn and Deeside and Delyn have returned Labour members continuously since the Senedd was first elected in 1999.
Polling day is Thursday 7 May.
The Senedd is electing 96 members for the first time, up from 60.
Each of the 16 new constituencies elects six members from closed party lists, with seats allocated using the d’Hondt formula.
Wales-wide, the YouGov MRP projects Plaid Cymru on 43 seats, Reform UK on 34, Welsh Labour on 12, the Welsh Conservatives on four, the Wales Green Party on two and the Welsh Liberal Democrats on one.
None of those totals reaches the 49 needed for a majority in the 96-member Senedd.
Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, which worked on the poll with YouGov, said the broad shape of Thursday’s result was “now fairly clear, even if precise seat totals remain uncertain”.
He said Plaid Cymru appeared to have opened a small gap in the final days but that the race remained close.
Adrian Masters, ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor, said the latest poll “reinforces the message from a year of polls” that this week’s result would be historic. He added that historic change was likely to be accompanied by unprecedented uncertainty.
The MRP was based on a sample of 2,391 adults in Wales aged 16 and over, with fieldwork between 25 April and 4 May 2026.
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