Flintshire budget gap grows to £27.8m as funding remains unknown
Flintshire County Council is facing another multi-million pound budget gap for 2027/28, with no indication yet from Welsh Government of how much funding the county will receive.
Cabinet will be told at its meeting on Tuesday 14 July that the council’s forecast additional budget requirement for 2027/28 has risen to £27.759m, up from an initial estimate of £26.578m made during last year’s budget process.
Early figures also point to further gaps of £21.927m in 2028/29, £19.290m in 2029/30 and £19.664m in 2030/31, as the council moves to a five-year financial planning framework for the first time.
The increase is driven largely by pay awards, which account for £8.474m of the pressure, and social care, at £6.509m. Cost pressures for schools stand at £3.294m, including money for Additional Learning Needs and Secondary Schools Resource Units.
Corporate Finance Manager Gary Ferguson’s report to Cabinet says the authority still does not know how much money it will get from Welsh Government next year.
Aggregate External Finance, the main grant that funds around 70% of the council’s budget, has no indicative figures for 2027/28 attached to it yet. Every 1% change in that funding is worth around £2.94m to Flintshire, and each 1% on council tax raises about £1.2m.
The uncertainty comes as the Welsh Government’s own push to change the way it is funded has already stalled once this month.
A Senedd motion calling for ‘fair funding for Wales’, which would have seen MSs back the Welsh Government’s attempt to reform the Barnett Formula, was defeated by a single vote, 46 to 45, on Tuesday 7 July, a week before Flintshire’s own Cabinet meets.
The Barnett Formula sets how much money Wales receives from the UK Treasury each year, based on comparable spending on services in England.
First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth told the Senedd the current system ‘make[s] economic failure more likely’.
Opposition parties argued Wales already receives more funding per head than England, and that changing the formula could leave the country worse off.
Whether or not the Barnett Formula changes, Flintshire will not know its own funding position for 2027/28 until Welsh Government publishes its provisional settlement in December, and the council’s budget strategy has to be built in the meantime without that figure.
The report says the council is looking at what a 10% cost reduction across all portfolios would mean, though it stresses this is an evaluation exercise rather than a decision to cut services.
A Strategic Transformation Programme, already targeting £2m of savings for 2026/27, will continue to be developed alongside the wider budget strategy.
Cabinet is not being asked to approve any cuts or council tax rise at this stage.
Members are being asked only to note the update and agree the timetable for developing the 2027/28 budget, which includes member workshops in July and October, scrutiny committee input in September and October, and a report on the Welsh Government’s provisional settlement expected in December.
Council tax and any savings proposals will not be finalised until February 2027.
FLINTSHIRE BUDGET GAP: THE KEY FIGURES
£27.759m — forecast additional budget requirement for 2027/28
£8.474m — of that, the cost of pay awards
£6.509m — of that, the cost of social care pressures
£2.94m — value to Flintshire of each 1% change in Welsh Government funding
£1.2m — value to Flintshire of each 1% change in council tax
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