Plaid Cymru edges ahead in YouGov Senedd poll

The latest YouGov/ITV Wales Senedd voting intention poll has placed Plaid Cymru in the lead for the first time in Welsh political history, marking a potential turning point ahead of the next election.

The poll shows Plaid Cymru securing 24% of voter intentions, narrowly overtaking Labour, which fell to 23%, a four-point drop.

Reform UK saw a significant surge to 23%, up five points, while the Conservatives held steady at 19% (+1).

The Green Party gained slightly, reaching 6% (+1), while the Liberal Democrats dropped to 5% (-1).

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson described the results as “a historic turning point for Wales,” crediting the party’s gains to Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership and its “Made in Wales” agenda.

“This poll is a historic turning point for Wales,” the spokesperson said. “People are recognising that Plaid Cymru under Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership is the clear alternative to Labour, offering the only programme of positive change to improve lives.”

The spokesperson also highlighted Labour’s declining support, pointing to unresolved issues like record-high NHS waiting lists, lack of economic growth strategies, and disconnection in public transport systems.

“Promises of a partnership of delivery between the UK and Welsh Labour governments are ringing hollow,” the spokesperson continued. “Momentum is with Plaid Cymru. Rhun ap Iorwerth offers the new leadership people are crying out for.”

The results come from a poll conducted by YouGov between November 25 and 29, sampling 1,121 Welsh voters aged 16 and over.

The survey was part of the Barn Cymru initiative, a collaboration between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and YouGov, aiming to provide real-time insights into public opinion in Wales.

If these figures were mirrored in an election, Plaid Cymru would become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time in its history, a development that would significantly reshape the Welsh political landscape.