NatWest survey records sharper drop in Welsh business activity
Welsh private-sector firms cut jobs at the fastest rate in almost six years in May, according to a monthly business survey.
The NatWest Cymru Growth Tracker also found that business output fell faster than in April, and that costs rose at their sharpest rate since November 2022.
The survey covers Wales as a whole and is not broken down by county, so there is no separate figure for Flintshire.
Flintshire is one of the largest private-sector manufacturing bases in Wales, home to Airbus Broughton and the firms on Deeside Industrial Park.
The tracker’s headline index measures the combined month-on-month change in output across manufacturing and services.
A reading above 50 means activity is growing, and below 50 means it is shrinking.
The index fell to 45.8 in May from 47.9 in April, the quickest drop in output since September 2025.
The survey blamed higher costs and growing uncertainty for weaker demand.
Of the 12 UK areas monitored, Welsh firms cut staff faster than anywhere else, at the steepest rate since September 2020.
New orders fell for a fourth month running, though the pace of that decline was the slowest in the run.
The release led on that easing in new orders, but the survey’s chair said part of the improvement came from customers stockpiling rather than from stronger underlying demand.
Jessica Shipman, Chair of the NatWest Cymru Board, said: “May data indicated a softer decline in new orders at Welsh firms, however, some of the uplift in the seasonally adjusted New Business Index stemmed from a temporary bout of stockpiling at customers amid higher prices and supply challenges.”
She added: “Input prices and output charges rose again, and at steeper rates, as the conflict in the Middle East pushed up material, fuel and energy costs.”
Welsh firms raised their own selling prices at the fastest pace in more than a year, broadly in line with the UK average.
Business confidence about the year ahead dipped from April and sat below the UK average.
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