What Australia’s flu season could mean for Wales this winter
Australia’s flu season could provide a glimpse of what Wales may face this winter, according to new modelling published by the Welsh Government.
The southern hemisphere often serves as an early warning system for northern countries.
A report released on 22 September shows influenza levels in Australia rose sharply from July 2025, with more cases of influenza B recorded and a 10.7 per cent increase in flu-related deaths compared to the first half of 2024.
In Australia most cases were caused by influenza A (predominantly H1N1), but the proportion of influenza B was noticeably higher than the year before.
Influenza A viruses are typically responsible for large flu outbreaks and pandemics, while influenza B generally causes less severe illness and spreads more slowly.
However, influenza B can still lead to serious disease, particularly in children, older adults and those with underlying health conditions.
Using the international picture to guide forecasts, officials say Wales may experience a flu season similar to 2024–25, though with more influenza B in circulation.
In Wales, last winter saw the highest flu hospital admissions since the pandemic.
A total of 4,349 admissions were recorded, with a peak of 306 in the final week of December 2024, around double the level of the previous winter.
Flu-like illness consultations with GPs also rose to between 35 and 40 per 100,000 population, higher than in England but similar to Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity peaked in November, with admissions falling among children but rising in older adults.
Among those aged 75 and above, there were 224 RSV admissions last winter, a 64 per cent increase on the year before.
Covid-19 pressures have eased compared to previous winters, with 2,228 admissions recorded in 2024–25, down from 4,248 the year before.
The World Health Organization is monitoring six Covid-19 variants worldwide.
The current dominant strain, known as Nimbus, and a faster-spreading variant called Stratus, are not thought to cause more severe illness.
The Welsh Government’s modelling also highlights the impact of extreme weather.
A UK Health Security Agency review has warned that without adaptation both heat and cold-related deaths will rise in future, driven by climate change and an ageing population.
Officials say the combined effect of flu, RSV, Covid-19 and other winter infections, alongside pressures linked to climate and social care, will continue to test the resilience of the NHS in Wales over the coming months.
Flu Jabs
Flu vaccines are available free on the NHS in Wales for those most at risk, including children, older adults, people with long-term health conditions, carers, and pregnant women.
Most children receive the vaccine as a nasal spray, while adults are offered an injection at their GP surgery or local pharmacy.
More details on eligibility and how to get the vaccine are available here: https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/immunisation-and-vaccines/fluvaccine/eligibility/
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