Senedd election 2026: New poll gives Reform UK three seats in Fflint Wrecsam and Plaid Cymru two as Labour slips to one
Reform is on course to win three of the six seats in the new Fflint Wrecsam constituency, with Plaid Cymru taking two and Welsh Labour one, according to MRP polling by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales published last night.
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The poll, produced in partnership with the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, was conducted between 6 and 15 April 2026 on a sample of 2,387 adults in Wales and modelled using multi-level regression and post-stratification.
Wales-wide, the figures show Reform UK and Plaid Cymru tied on 29 per cent of the vote. ITV Cymru Wales said the headline vote share is up two points for Reform UK and down four points for Plaid Cymru since the previous poll in the series.
Under the new d’Hondt closed-list system being used in Wales for the first time at this election, that vote share translates to 37 projected seats for Reform UK and 36 for Plaid Cymru in the enlarged 96-member Senedd. Both are short of the 49 seats needed for an outright majority.
Fflint Wrecsam projection
Fflint Wrecsam is one of sixteen new constituencies being contested on 7 May. It combines the former Alyn and Deeside and Wrexham seats and elects six Members of the Senedd from closed party lists.
The ITV/YouGov MRP model gives:
| Reform UK | 3 seats |
| Plaid Cymru | 2 seats |
| Welsh Labour | 1 seat |
The neighbouring Gwynedd Maldwyn constituency, which takes in some villages in the south of Wrexham County Borough under the new boundaries, is projected to return three Plaid Cymru members, two Reform UK members and one Green.
Wales-wide picture
Beyond the two leaders, the poll puts Welsh Labour on 13 per cent, unchanged on the previous survey, and projects the party to return twelve Members of the Senedd. ITV Cymru Wales said Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan would not be among them on these figures.
The Wales Green Party is modelled at 10 per cent, down two points, and projected to win seven seats. The Welsh Conservatives are on 8 per cent, up one point, and projected to return three members – not including their leader Darren Millar on this round of results, according to ITV Cymru Wales.
The Welsh Liberal Democrats are on 6 per cent, up one point. Their leader Jane Dodds is the party’s one projected seat in the model.
On Westminster voting intention, which uses a separate YouGov MRP model with a sample of 1,188 adults, Plaid Cymru leads on 28 per cent, ahead of Reform UK on 23 per cent and the Wales Green Party on 16 per cent.
Coalition arithmetic
Dr Jac Larner, of Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, said: “This poll shows another small drop in support for Plaid Cymru, putting them level with Reform UK at 29%; YouGov’s lowest Plaid estimate since November 2024. All polls come with a margin of error, and we should be cautious about reading too much into a single result.
“But taken alongside the broader polling trend, the signal is clear: the race for the largest party remains between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with every other party — including Labour, who were dominant in Welsh politics not two years ago — competing for a distant third place and below.
“What that framing obscures, however, is that finishing first may matter less than it appears. Whichever party leads on seats will face the same coalition arithmetic, and that arithmetic is far more favourable to Plaid than to Reform.
“Plaid has credible partners in Labour and the Greens; a combination of those parties can reach a working majority. Reform has no such options.
“The only party that has indicated any willingness to work with them is the Conservatives, who on these numbers will not come close to bridging the gap to a Senedd majority. In a proportional system, the route to government matters as much as the vote share, and on that measure, the two parties are not as evenly matched as the headline figures suggest.
“A situation where Reform UK are the largest party but find themselves in opposition will nonetheless be a novel one for Welsh voters still adjusting to the realities of proportional government formation.”
A change election
Adrian Masters, ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor said: “For the two frontrunners, this poll will have a galvanising effect. Reform UK will use it to urge its supporters to make its gain a reality in terms of votes. While Plaid Cymru’s drop won’t necessarily be unwelcome to that party, shaking up any complacency that may have crept in over the months when its lead was clearer.
“However, the main message remains the same: the vote on May 7th shows every sign of being a change election. Voters here in Wales have clearly decided that they want something different, but they haven’t yet settled on what form that change will take. ”
Barn Cymru is a collaborative partnership between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre
at Cardiff University, and the leading polling agency YouGov.
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