Polling predicts Conservative gains in North Wales with Flintshire seats on a knife edge

YouGov’s official 2019 general election MRP model – the poll that came closest to calling the result of Theresa May’s  2017 election, currently shows the Conservatives on course for a sizable majority.

If the election was held tomorrow, the Tories would win 359 seats – 42 more than they took in 2017 – and 43% of the vote – around the same as last time.

In terms of seats won, this would be the Conservatives’ best performance since 1987.

According to the YouGov forecast, Labour are set to lose 51 seats – falling from 262 seats in 2017 to 211 now – and taking 32% of the vote – a nine percentage point decrease.

In terms of seats won this would be the party’s worst performance since 1983.

The current MRP model has the Conservatives gaining 47 seats; 44 of which are from Labour, two are from the Lib Dems

YouGov says it is possible Labour could lose all of their North Wales seats, with the six they hold in this region looking like tight contests with the Conservatives.

The Tories currently have a 4 point lead in Wrexham, a seat Labour has won at every election since 1922.

Four other North Wales Labour seats – Alyn and Deeside, Delyn, Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd South – “could also move into the Conservative column, with the situation across these constituencies currently ranging from a 2 point Tory lead, to both parties being tied.” YouGov says.

Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, said: “Labour are set for losses in Wales but remain the dominant party in the country, keeping hold of all their south Wales seats.

“The picture is less positive for the party in north Wales where they are currently losing four of the six seats they hold in the region to the Conservatives.

“A significant loss would be Wrexham, a seat Labour has won at every election since 1922.

“The Liberal Democrats’ by-election success in Brecon and Radnorshire looks to be short-lived with the Conservatives set to win it straight back.”

YouGov’s MRP model seems to suggest that the Brexit Party is hurting the Conservatives more than Labour in some neck-and-neck marginals where Nigel Farage’s party is running.

YouGov says, “For every one vote the Brexit party is taking from Labour it is taking two from the Conservatives – 4% of 2017 Labour voters plan to back Nigel Farage’s party compared to 8% of 2017 Tory voters.”

In Alyn and Deeside the poll suggests the race between Labour and the Tories is on a knife-edge at 42% each, however, if the Brexit party were to stand down, the analysis shows the Tories would win the seat for the first time ever. 

YouGov says:

“If the Brexit Party didn’t stand, and all of these voters returned to the party they backed in 2017, this would boost the Conservatives’ total vote share in these seats by 3% and Labour’s vote share by only 2%, handing the seat to the Conservatives.

In fact, in all of the five Labour-held seats that our model currently shows as being neck-and-neck between Labour and the Tories, the Brexit Party is hurting the Conservatives slightly more than Labour and seemingly denting the Tories’ chances of winning there.

In Sedgefield, Bolton North East, and Gower, constituencies where Labour currently has a one-point lead, the Brexit party currently looks to be holding the Conservatives back. However, the data suggests that the influence of the Brexit party is not large enough to make a difference in any seats where Labour are ahead by two or more points.”

The general election will be held on Thursday 12 December 2019.

You can choose from 5 candidates in the Alyn and Deeside constituency.

You can choose from 5 candidates in the Delyn constituency.